Economic Expansion to Take Two More Years


August 2017

By Selina Stoller, Summit AmeriFirst Holdings, LLC

According to a majority of the U.S., Canadian, and European economists polled by Reuters, the U.S. economic expansion will last at least two more years.

Of those economists, 21 said it would last two to three years. Thirteen of them said more than three years. None of them believe it will end within a year.

These economists also believe that the economy will not grow as quickly as the Trump administration predicted.

The recovery from the financial crisis of the mid-2000s has been longer than usual. The latest growth stretch lasted 96 months, and if predictions by these economists come true, this could mark the longest economic expansion in more than 150 years.

Predictions pointed to continued sluggish average growth in the current economic cycle compared with previous cycles of this length, based on National Bureau of Economic Research data.

The poll also predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October or December, taking the fed funds rate to a range of 1.25 percent to 1.50 percent.

Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, likely grew at a 2.6 percent annualized pace in the second quarter, down from 2.7 percent in the July poll. The trend has yet to break away from around 2 percent.

The latest poll suggests 2.1 percent to 2.5 percent growth each quarter to the end of next year, slightly down from the 2.2 percent to 2.5 percent predicted the previous month. But growth has not been that steady during this expansion and generally is not in any economy.

President Donald Trump’s administration aims to boost annual growth to 3 percent by enacting large tax cuts. With the failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, fiscal stimulus appears to be unlikely, and the economy doesn’t seem like it will meet that target.

  • 24 Aug, 2017
  • Josh Smith

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